Thursday, February 22, 2007

Techcombank forecasts revenues

Techcombank projects pre-tax profits this year of VND500 billion (31mio US$) , according to the bank’s general director, Nguyen Duc Vinh.

The bank would also raise its chartered capital to VND3 trillion (186mio US$) by the end of the year, doubling the current level of VND1.5 trillion (93mio US$), Vinh said. It would also expand its current network of six branches and 40 transaction offices to a total of 120 offices nationwide this year.

Techcombank plans to continue focusing on individual customers and small- and medium-sized enterprises by developing new services and products, he added.

To improve business performance, the bank would implement the Temenos 24 core banking software system which would form a firm foundation for the bank to develop new products and provide a higher quality service.

Earlier this month, HSBC reached an agreement with Techcombank to acquire an additional 10% of shares in the bank once the State Bank of Viet Nam approves the deal.
Under current regulations, a single foreign institution can only hold as much as 10% in a domestic bank, and HSBC already holds a 10% share in the bank. HSBC was waiting for the State Bank to change the regulation and lift the foreign ownership ceiling to 20%.
HSBC has already formed a strategic partnership with Techcombank, assisting the latter in corporate governance, technical support and risk management.

Vinh said that co-operation with a foreign bank was effective if the local bank itself was willing to look carefully into all aspects of banking operations from technology to human resources.
Techcombank has defined HSBC as its exclusive strategic partner and does not plan to enter into a relationship with an additional foreign or domestic partner, Vinh noted.

Source: VNS

SSC fails in penalising brokers

A series of violations of regulations by securities brokerages has many investors wondering out loud why the State Securities Commission has only required these firms to correct violating practices without imposing any sanctions or penalties.

The commission has yet to mete out any punishment in any of these cases, only requiring securities companies to change their behaviour.

For example, the Vietcombank in-house brokerage, Vietcombank Securities, was found guilty of six infractions but only requested to amend order procedures and stop direct trading by certain investors.

Asia Commercial Bank subsidiary ACB Securities was told to stop allowing investors from using stock collateral between the time shares are bought to the termination date.
Le Thanh, an investor on the bourse and client of Vietcombank Securities, said that he felt angry when placing stock buy or sell orders, knowing the broker would place larger institutional orders in the queue ahead of him.

The brokerage firm needed to be aware of its capacity to supply services, Thanh said. If the firm could not satisfy investor demands, he wondered, why was it still opening new accounts?.
Hoang Duc Long, director of the State Securities Commission’s Investigative Department, could not offer a reasonable explanation for the commission’s laxity in handling brokerage violations.
Thanh reckoned that the commission should strictly penalise Vietcombank Securities for its violations to ensure a fair market environment and maintain investor confidence in the nation’s stock market.

However, a newly-issued decree providing regulations guiding implementation of the Securities Law does not specify punishment levels for specific illegal practices.

A financial expert said that it was undeniable that securities firms were making mistakes but, to some extent, these were a natural aspect of the evolution of the stock market. The blame also lied in part with the administrative systems of the authorities.

For instance, the software used by the HCM City Securities Trading Centre has not been updated in seven years and matches orders in three phases, creating bottlenecks during active trading.

In light of the problems, the Prime Minister recently requested the Ministry of Finance, in co-ordination with other ministries and sectors, to formulate a proposal in the first quarter of this year for the establishment of an authorised body independent of the Securities Commission and the State Bank of Viet Nam to supervise activities on the stock and monetary markets.

One of the main functions of the body would be to supervise trading activities on stock exchanges and activities of securities firms such as brokerage and consulting, as well as ensure compliance with securities deposit procedures and payment procedures.

Nguyen Hoang Hai, general secretary of the Viet Nam Association of Financial Investors, said that it was suitable and necessary to establish an indepenent supervisory body. Countries like Singapore, Japan, and South Korea also have such organisations.

The State Securities Commission has not fulfilled its function as a market regulator, and recent investigations of unlawful practices on the market were conducted were due to the pressure of public opinion rather than at the initiative of the commission.

Nguyen Van Dung, deputy director of the Ha Noi Securities Trading Centre, also agreed with the need to establish a powerful, functional organisation to monitor the market, to keep a close watch on market performance and capital circulation on the market.

Source: VNS

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Average Directional Index (ADX)

. Welles Wilder developed the Average Directional Index (ADX) to evaluate the strength of a current trend, be it up or down. It's important to determine whether the market is trending or trading (moving sideways), because certain indicators give more useful results depending on the market doing one or the other.

The ADX is an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 100. Even though the scale is from 0 to 100, readings above 60 are relatively rare. Low readings, below 20, indicate a weak trend and high readings, above 40, indicate a strong trend. The indicator does not grade the trend as bullish or bearish, but merely assesses the strength of the current trend. A reading above 40 can indicate a strong downtrend as well as a strong uptrend.

ADX can also be used to identify potential changes in a market from trending to non-trending. When ADX begins to strengthen from below 20 and moves above 20, it is a sign that the trading range is ending and a trend is developing.

JC Penney Co, Inc. (JCP) ADX strong trend example chart from StockCharts.com

When ADX begins to weaken from above 40 and moves below 40, it is a sign that the current trend is losing strength and a trading range could develop.

Intel Corp. (INTC) ADX weak trend example chart from StockCharts.com

Positive/Negative Directional Indicators

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The ADX is derived from two other indicators, also developed by Wilder, called the Positive Directional Indicator (sometimes written +DI) and the Negative Directional Indicator (-DI).

When the ADX Indicator is selected, SharpCharts plots the Positive Directional Indicator (+DI), Negative Directional Indicator (-DI) and Average Directional Index (ADX). With the Red, White and Green color scheme on SharpCharts, ADX is the thick black line with less fluctuation, +DI is green and -DI is red. +DI measures the force of the up moves and -DI measures the force of the down moves over a set period. The default setting is 14 periods, but users are encouraged to modify these settings according to their personal preferences.

In its most basic form, buy and sell signals can be generated by +DI/-DI crosses. A buy signal occurs when +DI moves above -DI and a sell signal when -DI moves above the +DI. Be careful, though; when a security is in a trading range, this system may produce many whipsaws. As with most technical indicators, +DI/-DI crosses should be used in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis.

The ADX combines +DI with -DI, and then smooths the data with a moving average to provide a measurement of trend strength. Because it uses both +DI and -DI, ADX does not offer any indication of trend direction, just strength. Generally, readings above 40 indicate a strong trend and readings below 20 a weak trend. To catch a trend in its early stages, you might look for stocks with ADX that advances above 20. Conversely, an ADX decline from above 40 might signal that the current trend is weakening and a trading range is developing.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) and SharpCharts

SharpCharts application ADX example image from StockCharts.com

With SharpCharts, you can plot the +DI/-DI using the Wilder's DMI (ADX) indicator above, below, or behind the price plot chart. The Parameters text box controls the number of periods used to calculate the ADX, with the default being 14. The Position drop-down menu controls the positioning of the indicator.

Bear in mind that increasing the number of periods will smooth the ADX line (making it less volatile), and display more significant readings. The readings, however, will present more of a lag. For example, if charting 30 periods, readings over 40 become stronger indicators of a trend. However, the trend may have already started and could have been caught earlier less periods were used.

Stock market mania grips Vietnamese

By Amy Kazmin

Published: February 20 2007 15:29 | Last updated: February 20 2007 15:29

A manager at a foreign-run hotel and part-time MBA student, Nguyen Dung, 26, had never owned shares in a company until recently. But last week, impressed by the spectacular rise of Vietnam’s stock market, he invested $650 in an informal pool with 30 of his MBA classmates.

The MBA students have agreed to pool information and tips and invest in a murky – and unregulated – informal market for shares in partially-privatised state-owned companies. To Mr Dung, what to any astute investor in the developed world would seem a risky bet, looks like a sure thing.

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“In Vietnam, the stock market is changing day by day,” he says. “If anyone has the correct information, they can get easy money.”

After watching the formal stock market’s main index soar by 249 per cent over the last 13 months, Vietnam’s emerging middle class is in the throws of stock market mania and students, civil servants and state enterprise managers with cash to spare are all rushing to buy shares and dreaming of windfall profits.

The recent bull-run on the formal exchange, with 107 listed companies, has been propelled partly by foreign investors, eager for exposure to one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies.

But for Vietnamese investors there is even greater euphoria in the market for the unlisted shares in hundreds of partially-privatised former state enterprises that may, or may not, list on the formal exchange one day. A recent auction put a $170m value on a copper cable company that reported $1.1m in profits last year.

“It’s a frenzy,” says Jonathan Pincus, the UN’s chief economist in Hanoi. “All the chatter in Hanoi is about people investing in the market. I don’t know if anyone knows what these companies are worth, but they are buying the paper.”

As tales emerge of local investors buying shares in defunct banks, Vietnamese authorities are fretting that many citizens – rather than getting rich – may be poised to see their savings evaporate. Yet officials are also struggling to cool the speculative fervour without precipitating a market collapse.

“The government is obviously concerned that the stock market prices are increasing continuously and many observers are of the view that it is fairly much overvalued,” said Il Houng Lee, the International Monetary Fund’s resident representative in Hanoi. “This could lead to problems later on if there is a rapid adjustment in the prices, given that there are many local investors involved.”

Rules on bank lending for stock market purchases have tightened. Officials are also considering whether to impose a rule for foreign investors to keep their capital in Vietnam for one year.

Until recently, Vietnamese tended to put what savings they had into more traditional assets such as gold or real estate. But in the past year the number of trading accounts in the Vietnamese stock market has almost quadrupled from 32,000 to about 120,000.

Brokerages are mushrooming, with 56 now licensed, up from 16 early last year. All kinds of companies are trying to get a bite of what they see as a lucrative business with one state garment maker, Vinatex, recently declaring it would open a stock-broking arm.

Vietnamese companies in an array of sectors appear to be using surplus cash to punt on the market instead of investing in their core activities. Sriyan Pietersz, head of research at JPMorgan, sees the dangers of this: “Apart from the fact that earnings could be volatile, you run the risk of under-investing in your business . . . because management is too busy rooting around on its Bloomberg screen.”

Authorities are also struggling to get stock market-obsessed civil servants to focus on their day jobs.

The central bank recently issued an edict prohibiting staff from making stock investments during working hours. But Tra Le, an executive vice-president at the stock exchange, says it is an uphill struggle. “Commercial bank staff are kind of lukewarm on their jobs and very interested in something else. They are just watching the screen and watching the price performance of shares, which is reducing the productivity of the banks.”

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Government bonds on auction

The Vietnam gov’t is set to auction 300 billion VND (18.8mio US$) in bonds February 26 at the Hanoi Securities Trading Center (HASTC), with funds to assist socio-economic development. The finance ministry forecast that government backed bonds would lure about 60-70 trillion VND (3.7- 4.3mio US$) annually in the near future.

The five-year bonds bear a face value of 100,000 VND and will be issued the State Treasury on February 28 and listed in the Hanoi bourse.

The government has successfully raised 500 billion VND (31mio US$) through a bond issue on also HASTC on February 5.

The five-year bonds, oversubscribed by nearly five times, have a coupon of 7.62% per annum.
The state treasury-issued report said Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City had generated about 2.5 trillion VND (US$156 million), bringing municipal outstanding bond debt to 10 trillion VND($625 million) last year.

The development of a bond market has been viewed as an effective way to tap capital sources and also an important step in controlling inflation and currency fluctuation, the treasury said.
Foreign financiers said the debt market was still small compared to the regional exchanges in the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore though the volume of government bonds has been increased since 2000.

They added that reforms were necessary to assist bond traders in accessing markets, tackling risks and controlling expenses.

The government should not be involved in setting price ceilings or interest rates, which limits the market’s competitiveness in the region.

The Ministry of Finance said recently it was restructuring the bond market to boost liquidity and transparency to attract investors and ensure funds for an economy growing at 8% a year.
Too many types of government bonds were now listed on the stock market and their small, fragmented nature limited the market’s development.

Starting this year, government bond issues would be larger and be traded on the Hanoi over-the-counter market.

The government planned to raise 500mio US$ to 1 billion US$ on the global bond market in the first quarter of this year, more than a year after raising 750mio US$ in its first sovereign bond issue.

The proceeds of the bond, with a maturity of 10 or 20 years, would be allocated to several companies, including Electricity of Vietnam, which too plans to issue global corporate bonds to raise 150mio US$.

Source: Thanh Nien

OTC market: many buyers, many more sellers

Unlike the hot OTC (over the counter) market a couple of weeks ago, unlisted shares these days are finding it hard to find customers.

Shares of several big banks like Eximbank, EAB, An Binh, Phuong Nam and Habubank have been trading well; however, the prices have decreased by 2-5% compared to last week.

Prices have been decreasing since investors heard the warnings about the overly high prices of unlisted shares, which proved to exceed the actual values, though joint stock banks all announced good business performances in 2006.

Big lots of shares (1,000 shares and more) found it hard to be sold on February 5 and 6. Hot share items including Mai Linh, Alphanam and PVI have all seen price decreases.

Mai Linh shares are being offered at VND43-48,000/share. However, transactions succeeded at VND42,000/share, while no investor dares buy large lots of shares (5-10,000 shares) at this moment.

PVI, which once hit the VND175,000/share level, was traded at VND165,000/share on February 6. There are a lot of offers for sale of these share items on OTC websites, while very few offers for buying were found.

SSI bonds, which were once traded at more than VND80,000/share, now are being offered at VND75,000/share.

The OTC market proves to be more sensitive than the official stock market. Investors sell shares immediately when prices begin going down. As the volume of shares sold has been too big, no one dares buy unlisted shares at this moment. Shares issued by Gia Dinh, Cho Lon Water Supply Companies cannot find customers now, and nor can shares of seafood, real estate and rubber companies. The offers for large lots of shares (more than 5,000 shares) of the non-bank and non-insurance companies these days prove to be hard to be successful.

Explaining the “shift of the wind”, the deputy director of a big securities company said that the information about the stricter control to be put over the OTC market had prompted investors to sell shares. There are too many share items on the OTC market, some 850 items, and the trading has been on a mess.

Meanwhile, Tran Quang Long, an investor at SSI’s trading floor, said that investors wanted to sell shares to take back capital as Tet was approaching. Many investors have to borrow money to trade securities and it is the right time to pay debts.

Source: Tiền Phong

Hanoi Securities Trading Centre

The Ha Noi Securities Trading Centre (HaSTC) will focus on building the secondary market in a safe and efficient manner as one of its key tasks in 2007, a HaSTC executive said on Feb. 2.

HaSTC will put into operation a distant trading system, which will directly connect with securities companies, rather than conducting transactions at trading floor as at present so as to better meet the market's requirements and improve its operation efficiency, HaSTC's Director Tran Van Dung said.

Dung added that HaSTC will upgrade the existing bond trading system into a professional secondary system and will establish a network managing over-the-counter (OTC) transactions to help increase the efficiency of the management of unlisted share trading, reduce risks for investors and increase market transparency.

The director continued that his fledgling stock exchange, which began its operation in March 2005, has witnessed a robust growth in transaction scale and value with effective supervision and information announcement.

Within over a year, the number of businesses registered for trading on the Ha Noi stock exchange increased 14 fold, from six to 87, with a total registered capital of more than 11.3 trillion VND, he said, adding that the total value of the market also rose from 2 trillion VND at the beginning of 2006 to more than 73 trillion on Dec. 29, 2006.

Source: VNA

Hanoi Securities Trading Centre

The Vietnam gov’t is set to auction 300 billion VND (18.8mio US$) in bonds February 26 at the Hanoi Securities Trading Center (HASTC), with funds to assist socio-economic development. The finance ministry forecast that government backed bonds would lure about 60-70 trillion VND (3.7- 4.3mio US$) annually in the near future.

The five-year bonds bear a face value of 100,000 VND and will be issued the State Treasury on February 28 and listed in the Hanoi bourse.

The government has successfully raised 500 billion VND (31mio US$) through a bond issue on also HASTC on February 5.

The five-year bonds, oversubscribed by nearly five times, have a coupon of 7.62% per annum.
The state treasury-issued report said Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City had generated about 2.5 trillion VND (US$156 million), bringing municipal outstanding bond debt to 10 trillion VND($625 million) last year.

The development of a bond market has been viewed as an effective way to tap capital sources and also an important step in controlling inflation and currency fluctuation, the treasury said.
Foreign financiers said the debt market was still small compared to the regional exchanges in the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore though the volume of government bonds has been increased since 2000.

They added that reforms were necessary to assist bond traders in accessing markets, tackling risks and controlling expenses.

The government should not be involved in setting price ceilings or interest rates, which limits the market’s competitiveness in the region.

The Ministry of Finance said recently it was restructuring the bond market to boost liquidity and transparency to attract investors and ensure funds for an economy growing at 8% a year.
Too many types of government bonds were now listed on the stock market and their small, fragmented nature limited the market’s development.

Starting this year, government bond issues would be larger and be traded on the Hanoi over-the-counter market.

The government planned to raise 500mio US$ to 1 billion US$ on the global bond market in the first quarter of this year, more than a year after raising 750mio US$ in its first sovereign bond issue.

The proceeds of the bond, with a maturity of 10 or 20 years, would be allocated to several companies, including Electricity of Vietnam, which too plans to issue global corporate bonds to raise 150mio US$.

Source: Thanh Nien

Vietnam January stock market review

In January, securities from the securities trading centres in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City saw sharp increases in both volume and value, according to a report announced by the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.

At the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Centre (HoSTC), the VN-Index stood at 725 points at the last trading session of December 2006. It climbed to 1,041 at the close on January 31, 2007, registering an average increase of 1.5% a day.

At the Hanoi Securities Trading Centre (HASTC), the HASTC-Index also increased consecutively. On January 2, it was 241.92 points and it reached 348.52 points on January 31, with an average growth of 1.8% a day.

The recent increase in prices of shares of listed companies started on December 27, 2006. At that time, the VN-Index was 751.77 and currently it exceeds over 1,000 points, up 140%. The market average P/E ratio is 43.24.

Of the 107 listed companies at the HoSTC, 17 has their P/E ratios bigger than the average ratio and more than half of them were shares of companies with sharp increases in prices. As many as 46 company shares have their P/E ratios bigger than 20 and the remaining 61 companies have their P/E ratio below 20.

At developed markets, the P/E ratio averages from 8-15. If this ratio is bigger than 20, the companies are marked to be good and investors expect the earnings per share of the company will increase sharply in the future.

Thus, the fact that 61 out of 107 listed companies have their P/E ratio lower than 20 is normal.

However, 17 out of these 107 companies have their P/E ratio bigger than the average P/E ratio of 43, shows that the market is showing signals of too high expectations. Especially, three companies have their P/E ratio bigger than 100. These include PVD (328), VIP (112) and HBC (162).

According to the SSC, the sharp growth of the stock market recently are due to the following reasons:

First, the overly high expectations of domestic and foreign investors in the securities market.

Secondly, the securities market is still new in Vietnam. Many investors are still influenced by demands from foreign investors.

Thirdly, some foreign and domestic investors are of the view that listed companies are mostly State-owned enterprises which have been equitised at an artificially at low price. Therefore, they hope that the price of these shares will remain cheap.

Fourthly, the sharp increase of shares of some listed companies is due to the fact that investors expect a sudden growth of some enterprises working in special sectors.

The last reason might be the capability that some big investors want to control the prices of some newly-listed shares.

Source: Nhân Dân online